Ciscoの11-1月期決算

今日はマーケットが閉まってから、ネットワーク機器最大手のシスコが四半期の決算を発表しました。売り上げ、EPS(一株当り利益)などの主な項目で、アナリストの予想を上回っていましたが、時間外で株価は暴落、9%近く下げました。これで3四半期連続で、決算発表後に株価が暴落したことになります。

前回と前々回の発表では、目先の決算の数字の成長率が芳しくないのと、社長が先行き見通しについてUncertainという言葉を連発して、投資家が不安になり暴落しました。

今回、注目したのは恐らく、売り上げは成長していますが、利益が16%位下がったことでしょうか。先行きは次のクオーターが4-6%の売り上げ成長、その次のクウォーターが10%以上と言っていましたが、利益の成長率の発表がなかったので、Not Impressiveといったところでしょうか。

しかし、全般的には財務部門が数字の発表の仕方やストーリー作りにかなり問題があるのではないかと感じました。同じような発表の仕方を次回もすれば、同じように暴落。だんだんと投資家が逃げていくと思います。

私も少し株を持っていましたので、やられました。(泣)

広告

携帯電話マーケット Nokiaの社長のメッセージ

携帯電話の世界最大手のノキアの社長が従業員の社内メールでメッセージを送りました。ノキアは日本やアメリカでは余り聞かないメーカーですが、ヨーロッパでは最大手で、ローエンド製品を中心にスマートフオン出荷台数では世界一位です。しかし、アップル、アンドロイド、ブラックベリーなどにやられて、近年は急激にシェアを失っています。この社長さんは、マーケットをよく描いていると思います。

人はよく、マーケットシェアというと出荷台数とかお客さんの数とかで計算します。間違ってはいないとは思いますが、必ずしもそのマーケットの各企業の立ち位置を示してはいないと思います。

例えば、アメリカでは国の80%の富を、人口の20%の人たちが独占していると言われます。そんなアメリカのシアトル地区では、3つの大きなスーパーマーケットがあります。オーガニックの食品を高価格でそろえ、店舗数も限られたWhole Foods、一方は低価格で数を裁き、店舗数もとても多いQFCとSafewayです。もし売れた商品の量やお客さんの数でマーケットシェアを考えたら、QFCやSafewayの圧勝です。しかし、売り上げや利益のマーケットシェアを考えたら、Whole Foodsの圧勝ではないでしょうか。何しろ、前者は80%の人口をターゲットにしていますが、後者は80%の富をターゲットにしているのですから。

Hello there,

There is a pertinent story about a man who was working on an oil platform in
the North Sea. He woke up one night from a loud explosion, which suddenly set
his entire oil platform on fire. In mere moments, he was surrounded by flames.
Through the smoke and heat, he barely made his way out of the chaos to the
platform’s edge. When he looked down over the edge, all he could see were the
dark, cold, foreboding Atlantic waters.

As the fire approached him, the man had mere seconds to react. He could stand
on the platform, and inevitably be consumed by the burning flames. Or, he could
plunge 30 meters in to the freezing waters. The man was standing upon a
“burning platform,” and he needed to make a choice.

He decided to jump. It was unexpected. In ordinary circumstances, the man would
never consider plunging into icy waters. But these were not ordinary times –
his platform was on fire. The man survived the fall and the waters. After he
was rescued, he noted that a “burning platform” caused a radical change
in his behaviour.

We too, are standing on a “burning platform,” and we must decide how
we are going to change our behaviour.

Over the past few months, I’ve shared with you what I’ve heard from our
shareholders, operators, developers, suppliers and from you. Today, I’m going
to share what I’ve learned and what I have come to believe.

I have learned that we are standing on a burning platform.

And, we have more than one explosion – we have multiple points of scorching
heat that are fuelling a blazing fire around us.

For example, there is intense heat coming from our competitors, more rapidly
than we ever expected. Apple disrupted the market by redefining the smartphone
and attracting developers to a closed, but very powerful ecosystem.

In 2008, Apple’s market share in the $300+ price range was 25 percent; by 2010
it escalated to 61 percent. They are enjoying a tremendous growth trajectory
with a 78 percent earnings growth year over year in Q4 2010. Apple demonstrated
that if designed well, consumers would buy a high-priced phone with a great
experience and developers would build applications. They changed the game, and
today, Apple owns the high-end range.

And then, there is Android. In about two years, Android created a platform that
attracts application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers.
Android came in at the high-end, they are now winning the mid-range, and
quickly they are going downstream to phones under €100. Google has become a
gravitational force, drawing much of the industry’s innovation to its core.

Let’s not forget about the low-end price range. In 2008, MediaTek supplied
complete reference designs for phone chipsets, which enabled manufacturers in
the Shenzhen region of China to produce phones at an unbelievable pace. By some
accounts, this ecosystem now produces more than one third of the phones sold
globally – taking share from us in emerging markets.

While competitors poured flames on our market share, what happened at Nokia? We
fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time. At that time, we thought
we were making the right decisions; but, with the benefit of hindsight, we now
find ourselves years behind.

The first iPhone shipped in 2007, and we still don’t have a product that is
close to their experience. Android came on the scene just over 2 years ago, and
this week they took our leadership position in smartphone volumes.
Unbelievable.

We have some brilliant sources of innovation inside Nokia, but we are not
bringing it to market fast enough. We thought MeeGo would be a platform for
winning high-end smartphones. However, at this rate, by the end of 2011, we
might have only one MeeGo product in the market.

At the midrange, we have Symbian. It has proven to be non-competitive in
leading markets like North America. Additionally, Symbian is proving to be an
increasingly difficult environment in which to develop to meet the continuously
expanding consumer requirements, leading to slowness in product development and
also creating a disadvantage when we seek to take advantage of new hardware
platforms. As a result, if we continue like before, we will get further and
further behind, while our competitors advance further and further ahead.

At the lower-end price range, Chinese OEMs are cranking out a device much
faster than, as one Nokia employee said only partially in jest, “the time
that it takes us to polish a PowerPoint presentation.” They are fast, they
are cheap, and they are challenging us.

And the truly perplexing aspect is that we’re not even fighting with the right
weapons. We are still too often trying to approach each price range on a
device-to-device basis.

The battle of devices has now become a war of ecosystems, where ecosystems
include not only the hardware and software of the device, but developers,
applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications,
location-based services, unified communications and many other things. Our
competitors aren’t taking our market share with devices; they are taking our
market share with an entire ecosystem. This means we’re going to have to decide
how we either build, catalyse or join an ecosystem.

This is one of the decisions we need to make. In the meantime, we’ve lost
market share, we’ve lost mind share and we’ve lost time.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s informed that they will put our A long term
and A-1 short term ratings on negative credit watch. This is a similar rating
action to the one that Moody’s took last week. Basically it means that during
the next few weeks they will make an analysis of Nokia, and decide on a
possible credit rating downgrade. Why are these credit agencies contemplating
these changes? Because they are concerned about our competitiveness.

Consumer preference for Nokia declined worldwide. In the UK, our brand
preference has slipped to 20 percent, which is 8 percent lower than last year.
That means only 1 out of 5 people in the UK prefer Nokia to other brands. It’s
also down in the other markets, which are traditionally our strongholds:
Russia, Germany, Indonesia, UAE, and on and on and on.

How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us
evolved?

This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it
has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own
burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to
align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of
misses. We haven’t been delivering innovation fast enough. We’re not
collaborating internally.

Nokia, our platform is burning.

We are working on a path forward — a path to rebuild our market leadership.
When we share the new strategy on February 11, it will be a huge effort to
transform our company. But, I believe that together, we can face the challenges
ahead of us. Together, we can choose to define our future.

The burning platform, upon which the man found himself, caused the man to shift
his behaviour, and take a bold and brave step into an uncertain future. He was
able to tell his story. Now, we have a great opportunity to do the same.

Stephen.

その後、自社OSからマイクロソフトのWindows Phone 7 OSやAndroid OSの採用へのシフトがささやかれていますが、そんな結論でいいのでしょか。社長はマイクロソフトから最近、転職された方です。結局は、その程度のことを従業員にこのメールで言いたかったのだとしたら、がっかりですね。